Why Trump Secured a Breakthrough in the Middle East But Faces Challenges With Vladimir Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict
Reports of an upcoming US-Russia leadership summit have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.
Only a few days after President Trump said he planned to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.
A initial get-together by the both countries' leading diplomats has been called off, too.
"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," Donald Trump informed the press at the White House on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I'll see what happens."
- Trump says he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for Putin talks postponed
- Letdown in Kyiv as President Zelensky departs White House empty-handed
The on-again, off-again summit is just the latest twist in Trump's attempts to broker an end to hostilities in the Eastern European nation – a topic of increased attention for the US president after he orchestrated a truce and hostage release agreement in Gaza.
While making remarks in the North African country recently to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, Trump turned to Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.
"We have to get the Russian situation done," he declared.
Nonetheless, the conditions that converged to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for almost four years.
Less Leverage
According to the lead negotiator, the crucial element to unlocking a agreement was the Israeli government's move to strike Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a action that angered US partners in the Arab world but gave the president bargaining power to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into making a deal.
The US president benefited from a long record of supporting Israel since his first term, encompassing his decision to move the US embassy to the contested city, to change America's position on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, in recent times, his backing for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.
The American leader, actually, is better regarded among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a situation that gave him unique influence over the Israeli leader.
Add in Trump's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the region, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to secure an deal.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, Trump has significantly reduced leverage. In recent months, he has vacillated between efforts to strong-arm Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.
The US leader has warned to impose new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to provide Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could disrupt the global economy and further escalate the war.
At the same time, the president has criticized openly Zelensky, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with the country and suspending weapon deliveries to the country - then to retreat in the wake of concerned European allies who caution a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the entire region.
The president often boasts about his skill to meet and negotiate agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to advance the war any nearer a peaceful end.
The Russian president may actually be exploiting Trump's desire for a deal – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a means of influencing him.
In July, Putin consented to a summit in the US state at the time when it appeared likely that the president would approve on legislative penalties backed by GOP senators. That legislation was subsequently put on hold.
Last week, as news emerged that the White House was considering seriously sending long-range missiles and air defense systems to Ukraine, the president of Russia phoned the US president who then touted the potential meeting in Budapest.
The following day, the president hosted Zelensky at the executive residence, but departed without agreements after a reportedly tense meeting.
The US leader maintained that he was not being played by the Russian president.
"As you are aware, I've been played all my life by skilled operators, and I came out successfully," he remarked.
However the president of Ukraine later made note of the sequence of events.
"As soon as the issue of long-range mobility became a little further away for Ukraine – for Ukraine – the Russian side quickly became less engaged in negotiations," he said.
Thus, in a matter of days, Trump has shifted from considering the idea of sending missiles to Ukraine to planning a Budapest summit with Putin and privately urging the Ukrainian president to surrender the entire Donbas region – even land Russian forces has been unable to conquer.
He has finally settled on advocating a ceasefire along current battle lines – a proposal Russia has rejected.
On the campaign trail previously, the candidate vowed that he could end the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has since discarded that pledge, admitting that ending the war is proving harder than he expected.
It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his power – and the difficulty of establishing a framework for peace when both parties desires, or is able to, give up the fight.